All Features articles – Page 7
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator May 2023
Russian air superiority over Ukraine is coming to an end due to lack of equipment. Destroying civilian targets is counterproductive and consumes ammunition. Bakhmut is eating into Russian resources, while Ukraine is being re-armed. History teaches that better technology, rather than numerical superiority, wins wars. But even a lopsided Ukrainian win would not automatically mean peace.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – May 2023
*Data as of 31 March 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesAhead of the curve: What happened to equity volatility in 2022 and what next?
Something strange happened last year. Expectations about the future level of volatility in US equities – implied volatility – behaved in a very unusual way. In a falling market, the price of implied volatility normally rises because equity falls are associated with a worsening macroeconomic outlook, implying more market risk. Expectations of future volatility therefore increase.
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FeaturesEmerging markets decarbonisation
The International Energy Agency estimates that developing economies and emerging markets are responsible for more than two-thirds of global carbon emissions.
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FeaturesFixed income, rates & currency: Optimism fades on mixed data
January’s market optimism has been subsiding, as forecasts for inflation and US Federal Reserve policy shift the outlook further to the hawkish side. However, the macro picture is not clear. Markets hang on to every new piece of data to clarify the outlook, be it non-farm payrolls, the consumer price index (CPI) or the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
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FeaturesThe West should understand the strengths and limitations of Enterprise China
China is fast becoming the West’s bogeyman. Yet a hard decoupling of the two would be a lose-lose situation for both. Despite the tensions, private companies face the challenge of creating viable strategies for interactions with China that could make the difference between success and bankruptcy.
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FeaturesUkraine: The mother of all impact investments
Institutional investors can play a crucial role in rebuilding Ukraine in a post-war future
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FeaturesAhead of the curve: Introducing the concept of a carbon risk-free curve
As global investors and companies progress towards their net-zero emissions targets, the concept of a carbon risk-free curve becomes increasingly relevant within the fixed-income market. In our view, this curve should provide a reference for evaluating the risk levels of bonds in relation to their issuers’ CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) emissions and can therefore help investors to assess the impact of changes in CO₂e emissions on the yield spread of fixed-income bonds.
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FeaturesAccounting: IFRS’s Kono says no
On the face of it, the staff at the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) have done a good job so far.
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FeaturesIPE Quest Expectations Indicator April 2023
With new, superior equipment, the Ukrainian military is set to start an offensive soon. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, is jockeying to become Russia’s next kleptocrat on the back of the Russian army. Donald Trump’s candidacy is increasingly beleaguered by defeats in court. The trade agreement on Northern Ireland between the EU and the UK is a significant boon for both as well as for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, not because the trade flows are so important but because the issue blocked co-operation in many other fields. While the winter has been mild and beneficial, there are early signs of a dry spring, quite possible in view of climate change setting in. If that materialises, harvests, therefore food prices, will be affected in autumn.
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FeaturesQontigo Riskwatch – April 2023
*Data as of 28 February 2023. Forecast risk estimate for each index measured by the respective US, World and Emerging Markets Qontigo model variants
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FeaturesFrom soft landing to no landing
Once again, the US jobs market has shown its capacity to surprise forecasters, if not astonish them. January’s non-farm payroll numbers came in way above consensus forecasts, swiftly reversing markets’ dovish take on that week’s central bank actions, with bond markets handing back much of their earlier gains.
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FeaturesTCFD reporting for pension funds in the UK: a progress report
Some 18 months from the introduction of mandatory reporting of climate data by large UK pension funds, evidence shows that the policy has not brought about greater orientation towards green investments
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FeaturesPrivate equity fundamentals resilient in headwinds
The economy and markets are beset with headwinds, and private equity assets are unlikely to be impervious. The concerns with the asset class are wide-ranging, from difficult financing conditions to rising interest rates, squeezed corporate margins and closed exit routes.
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FeaturesCentral banks and the weaponisation of finance
The US has been a global power since the second world war. But it was during the interval between the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the rise of China in the 21st century that the US was perhaps the single global hegemon.
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FeaturesFear and loathing in European banks
Any CEO would recognise there is a problem when investors do not want to put their money to work with you. That is the situation that European banks find themselves in. The MSCI Europe bank index has considerably underperformed its MSCI Europe parent over the last 10 years.
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FeaturesAustralia: Regulator targets greenwashing
Vanguard, one of the world’s largest investment managers, suffered the indignity in December of being the second company in Australia to receive an infringement notice for alleged greenwashing.
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FeaturesResearch: How pension funds look at Chinese assets
Allocations to Chinese assets are still modest. Vincent Mortier and Amin Rajan discuss key issues in the third and final article from the latest Amundi-Create-Research Survey
